Friday, February 13, 2009

Wisconsin Football: 2009 Winter Prospectus

Note: All images found via Google image search. If you were the original poster of an image that appears here, please tell me and I will give you credit. Okay, so spring practice for college teams has not even begun yet, but February is a difficult month for me due to the lack of football. I may be the world's biggest Wisconsin fan (maybe a slight exaggeration, but I live and die with the team), and I hate the 7-month wait between bowl games and fall camp. Since the unpleasant end to the 2008 season, I have been looking forward to fall 2009, when we can only hope our Badgers improve on their disappointing 7-6 season. Following is my (limited) analysis of Wisconsin's recruiting class, its returning players, and its 2009 schedule. Until spring practice is concluded and the 2009 media guides are released, this may be the best you can do for your fill of Wisconsin football!

UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN 2009 RECRUITING CLASS
IF THERE IS NO STATE LISTED AFTER A PLAYER'S HOMETOWN, IT IS EITHER A WISCONSIN CITY OR AN OBVIOUS LOCATION (E.G. CHICAGO)

QB 5 Jon Budmayr 6- 194 Chicago
RB Montee Ball 5-11 220 St. Louis
WR Kraig Appleton 6-3 190 East St. Louis, IL
WR Jeff Duckworth 6- 194 Cincinnati
TE Jacob Pedersen 6-5 220 Menominee, MI
TE Brian Wozniak 6-4 225 Cincinnati
OT Casey Dehn 6-6 285 Owatonna, MN
OT Ryan Groy 6-5 305 Middleton
OG 72 Travis Frederick 6-4 310 Walworth, WI
OG Zac Matthias 6-4 297 Saginaw, MI
DE 11 David Gilbert 6-4 220 Fort Lauderdale, FL
DE* Shelby Harris 6-3 245 Mequon
DE/DT Tyler Dippel 6-4 248 Hartford, WI
DE/DT Pat Muldoon 6-4 248 Cincinnati
DT 91 Jordan Kohout 6-4 265 Waupun
LB** Chris Borland 6- 213 Dayton, OH
LB** A.J. Fenton 6-1 215 Erie, PA
LB Conor O'Neill 6-1 195 Fort Lauderdale, FL
CB*** Darious Thomas 5-11 175 Dallas
S**** Josh Peprah 6- 195 Dallas
S***** Dezmen Southward 6-1 200 Fort Lauderdale, FL

* could become a DT in the future
** could end up playing offense
*** could end up playing safety
**** could become a LB in the future
***** nobody really knows what position Southward will play

Potential Stars:
Budmayr, Ball, Appleton*, Duckworth, Pedersen*, Dehn*, Gilbert*, Harris, Borland, Southward* (incredible athletic ability)

Other Probable Impact Players:
Groy, Frederick, Muldoon, Kohout, Fenton, O'Neill

* possible "boom or bust" type player (has the look of a star, but if this player does not turn into a star, do not be surprised if he rarely sees the field)

Groy, Harris, and Kohout, the first three commitments in the class of 2009, are the three top ranked prospects from the state of Wisconsin in this class, but only Kohout is expected to play early; Frederick and Dippel, two later commitments, round out the top 5 in-state players of 2009. Wisconsin's 2009 recruiting class only has five players from the state of Wisconsin, but they happen to be the state's top 5 players.

Wisconsin fans got a pleasant surprise in May when Budmayr committed to the Badgers over a scholarship offer from Notre Dame. Budmayr joins 2008 redshirt Curt Phillips this spring to make two freshmen competing for the 2009 starting QB job. Ball, another early commitment, is very highly regarded, and could end up playing a large role in the offense in 2009. Duckworth's skill set is reminiscent of former UW receiver Luke Swan, and he could also end up seeing major playing time in 2009. Appleton (pictured above in red with his teammates, two of whom signed with Illinois) with is the highest ranked commitment Wisconsin has received at WR in quite some time; he also may be a contributor in the passing game right away. Fans are excited by the athletic ability of Pedersen, Dehn, and Southward, all of whom were lightly recruited in high school; while the expectations for these players are not particularly high, their athleticism could allow them to make a major impact before their career is over.

Gilbert, a Florida native, is an intriguing prospect; he reminds some of former UW star Erasmus James, others of another UW star, Travis Beckum. At the very least, he should be a similar player to O'Brien Schofield. The three LB commitments, Borland, Fenton and O'Neill, all played on highly successful high school teams, and were leaders on their respective teams. Cincinnati natives Wozniak and Muldoon chose Wisconsin over other major offers (Wozniak: Louisville and Maryland; Muldoon: Ohio State and Boston College, among others). Matthias, Thomas, and Peprah all fit the profile of the type of player the coaching staff was targeting this recruiting cycle: "football players" rather than just "athletes."

OTHER 2009 FRESHMEN (REDSHIRTS IN 2008)
QB 10 Curt Phillips 6-3 215 Kingsport, TN (pictured)
RB 22 Erik Smith 5-11 195 Chicago
RB/FB 28 Dextavious "Dex" Jones 6-1 220 Chicago
FB 42 Sam Spitz 6-1 245 Chicago
WR* 20 T.J. Williams 6- 180 Kenosha
TE/DE 46 Zach Davison 6-4 235 Des Moines
OT 65 Joe Schafer 6-5 285 St. Paul
OG/DT 66 Peter Konz 6-6 300 Neenah
DE 97 Brendan Kelly 6-6 240 Minneapolis
DE 90 Anthony Mains 6-6 240 Naples, FL
DE 94 Tyler Westphal 6-6 240 Menasha
DT 55 Eriks Briedis 6-5 265 Miami
LB 43 Leonard Hubbard 6-1 230 Springfield, IL
LB 53 Mike Taylor 6-2 205 Green Bay
CB/S 14 Marcus Cromartie 6-1 175 Dallas
S 24 Shelton Johnson 6- 175 Dallas

* could end up playing DB

Potential Stars:
Phillips, Westphal, Hubbard, Cromartie

Other Probable Impact Players:
Konz, Kelly, Taylor

CLASS OF 2008 PLAYERS WHO SAW PLAYING TIME AS TRUE FRESHMEN:
RB/FB Bradie Ewing , TE Jake Byrne, OG Kevin Zeitler, OG/C Jake Current, DE Brendan Kelly* CB Antonio Fenelus, CB/S Devin Smith, S Kevin Claxton**, P Brad Nortman

* medical redshirt
** could end up playing LB

OFFENSE*:
Offensive Coordinator:
Paul Chryst (**5th season)
RETURNING STARTER
QB DUSTIN SHERER/Scott Tolzien/Phillips/Budmayr
RB John Clay/Zacchaeus "Zach" Brown/E. Smith/Ball
FB Mickey Turner/Jones/Spitz/Ewing
WR1 Nick Toon
WR2 ISAAC ANDERSON
WR3 DAVID GILREATH
TE1 GARRETT GRAHAM (pictured)
TE2/HB Lance Kendricks/Turner/Byrne
LT GABE CARIMI
LG Jake Bscherer/Zeitler
C JOHN MOFFITT
RG Bill Nagy/Current
RT Konz/Josh Oglesby


* offensive "starters" may change based on the personnel package used
**in Chryst's first season as OC, he shared the duties with Brian White

Sherer started the final seven games of the 2008 season at quarterback, but did not impress. It is fans' assumption that there will be an open competition for the QB job in spring and fall camps, and with relatively low expectations going into the season, Phillips and Budmayr should be given every opportunity to see the field early. Clay (pictured, top of post) showed star potential (884 yards, 5.7 yard per carry) as a redshirt freshman in 2008, but do not count out steady performer Zach Brown, or Ball (the leading rusher in Missouri high school history) for that matter. Gilreath, Anderson, and Toon all showed steady progress in 2008, and the WR position should be solid in 2008 if a decent QB emerges. Jefferson is Wisconsin's best deep threat since NFL star (and fellow Cleveland native) Lee Evans, but injuries have left the rail-thin receiver shaken, making some doubt if he will ever be a productive player again for the Badgers. Freshmen Appleton and Duckworth are candidates for early playing time, and could be a formidable duo in the near future. Graham may be the Big Ten's best returning tight end, and there is solid depth behind him. Kendricks showed the potential to be a solid receiving threat as a sophomore. The offensive line must replace 3 starters from 2008's unit, but there is no shortage of experience or potential among potential starters Bscherer (3 years in the program), Oglesby (2 years, multiple starts), Current, Nagy (3 years), and Zeitler. 2008 4-star lineman Konz could be a darkhorse at right tackle, pushing Oglesby in the race to replace Eric VandenHeuvel.

DEFENSE:
Defensive Coordinator:
Dave Doeren (*4th season)
DE1 O'BRIEN SCHOFIELD
DE2 Brendan Kelly
DT1 J.J. Watt/Jeff Stehle
DT2 Daniel Moore/Briedis
MLB Culmer St. Jean/Hubbard
OLB1 Blake Sorensen/Taylor/Kevin Rouse
OLB2 JAEVERY McFADDEN
CB1 NILES BRINKLEY/Fenelus
CB2 Aaron Henry/Mario Goins
FS CHRIS MARAGOS/SHANE CARTER**/Johnson
SS JAY VALAI /Aubrey Pleasant

*in Doeren's first 2 seasons as DC, he shared the duties with Mike Hankwitz
** started in 2008 before losing job to Maragos

The defensive line was disappointing in 2008, and must replace 3 of 4 starters. If there is one area of the 2009 team fans should be worried about, it is DL. There is plenty of PT to be had if one of the freshmen (e.g. Kohout, Muldoon, Briedis) steps up. Watt, a transfer from Central Michigan, and former junior college transfer Daniel Moore appear to be the starters inside, but a starter has yet to emerge at end opposite O'Brien Schofield. 2 of 3 starters must be replaced from another disappointing unit from 2008, the linebackers. However, there is a good combination of talent, potential, and experience here. Returning startery McFadden is set to move back to his more natural position outside, with St. Jean in the middle and Blake Sorensen playing opposite McFadden. Fenton, Borland, and O'Neill are all candidates to see the field as true freshmen, especially on special teams. The defensive backs struggled in 2008, but some of their struggles can be attributed to an unproductive front 7. Brinkley was a surprising contributor at one CB spot, and is expected to be a solid starter in 2009. Henry's (pictured, bottom) return gives the secondary a leader, and a potential star. Valai (pictured above) was the defense's enforcer in 2008, and an offseason dedicated to improving his coverage skills should make him one of the most feared DB in the Big Ten.

SPECIAL TEAMS:
K PHILIP WELCH
P BRAD NORTMAN
PR GILREATH
KR GILREATH/?

Welch was excellent as a freshman in 2008, and while Nortman had his highs and lows, he was a true freshman. Look for the kicking unit to be solid for years to come. After a very good freshman season returning kicks, Gilreath (pictured) was a disappointment in 2008. He could potentially be replaced if a better option were to step up. Possibilities could include Erik Smith, Isaac Anderson, Maurice Moore, Aaron Henry, Antonio Fenelus, and anyone else gives the return game a spark.

Head Coach: Bret Bielema (4th season, 28-11)
OTHER PLAYERS LISTED IN DEPTH CHART:
QB 16 Scott Tolzien (Junior) 6-3 200 Chicago
QB 18 Dustin Sherer (Senior) 6-3 213 Indianapolis
RB 30 Zach Brown (Jr.) 5-11 210 Royal Palm, FL
RB 32 John Clay (Sophomore) 6-1 240 Racine
RB/FB 20 Bradie Ewing (So.) 6-1 222 Richland Center
FB/TE 36 Mickey Turner (Sr.) 6-4 252 Camdenton, MO
WR 1 Nick Toon (So.) 6-2 215 Middleton
WR 3 Maurice Moore (Jr.) 5-11 170 Dallas
WR 6 Isaac Anderson (Jr.) 5-11 176 Minneapolis
WR 7 Kyle Jefferson (Jr.) 6-5 175 Cleveland
WR 85 David Gilreath (Jr.) 5-10 170 Minneapolis
TE 82 Jake Byrne (So.) 6-5 255 Fayetteville, AR
TE 84 Lance Kendricks (Jr.) 6-4 230 Milwaukee
TE 89 Garrett Graham (Sr.) 6-4 237 Brick, NJ
OT 67 Josh Oglesby (So.) 6-8 330 Milwaukee
OT 68 Gabe Carimi (Jr.) 6-7 300 Cottage Grove
OT/OG 78 Jake Bscherer (Jr.) 6-7 300 Sturgeon Bay
OG 70 Kevin Zeitler (So.) 6-4 285 Waukesha
OG 76 Bill Nagy (Jr.) 6-4 300 Cleveland
OG/C 60 Jake Current (So.) 6-3 285 Troy, OH
C 74 John Moffitt (Jr.) 6-4 320 Guilford, CT
DE 50 O'Brien Schofield (Sr.) 6-3 235 Chicago
DE/DT 45 Daniel Moore (Sr.) 6-2 280 East St. Louis, IL
DT/DE 87 J.J. Watt (So.) 6-6 265 Pewaukee
DT 79 Jeff Stehle (Sr.) 6-6 290 Constantia, NY
DT 95 Pat Butrym (So.) 6-4 284 New Berlin
LB 15 Culmer St. Jean (Jr.) 6-1 230 Naples, FL
LB 27 Blake Sorensen (Jr.) 6-1 220 Minneapolis
LB 41 Kevin Rouse (So.) 6- 230 Chicago
LB 47 Jaevery McFadden (Sr.) 6-2 225 West Palm Beach, FL
LB 52 Elijah Hodge (Sr.) 6- 227 Fort Lauderdale, FL
CB 7 Aaron Henry (So.) 6- 200 Immokalee, FL
CB 23 Mario Goins (So.) 6-1 186 Copperas Cove, TX
CB 26 Antonio Fenelus (So.) 5-10 180 Boca Raton, FL
CB 29 Niles Brinkley (Jr.) 5-10 177 St. Louis
CB/S 10 Devin Smith (So.) 5-11 185 Dallas
S 8 Aubrey Pleasant 6-1 200 Flint, MI
S 12 Jay Valai (Jr.) 5-9 200 Dallas
S 21 Chris Maragos (Sr.) 6- 189 Racine
S 25 Shane Carter 6-2 202 Troy, OH
S 37 Kevin Claxton 6-2 205 Fort Lauderdale, FL
K 18 Philip Welch (So.) 6-3 190 Fort Collins, CO
P 98 Brad Nortman (So.) 6-3 215 Brookfield

2009 SCHEDULE (2008 record):
September 5 NORTHERN ILLINOIS (6-7)
September 12 FRESNO STATE (7-6)
September 19 WOFFORD (9-3*)
September 26 MICHIGAN STATE (9-4)
October 3 Minnesota (7-6)
October 10 Ohio State (10-3)
October 17 IOWA (9-4)
October 24 (open date)
October 31 PURDUE (4-8)
November 7 Indiana (3-9)
November 14 MICHIGAN (3-9)
November 21 Northwestern (9-4)
November 28 (open date)
December 5 Hawai'i (7-7)
*FCS (Formerly 1-AA) opponent; only 2008 FBS (1-A) opponent was South Carolina

Even college football's so-called "experts" are not making any predictions for the 2009 season yet, but I'll take a quick stab at it. I'll call Northern Illinois, Fresno State, Wofford, Purdue, Indiana, and Hawai'i wins. Ohio State will almost certainly be a loss, and Michigan State looks awfully good, although it must replace its QB (Brian Hoyer) and RB (Javon Ringer). That leaves Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan, and Northwestern as tossup games, none of which I am comfortable predicting at this point. In my humble opinion, the Badgers will finish no worse than 6-6, but could be as good as 10-2, based on an easier schedule than 2008. Less than 8 wins could have people calling for Coach Bret Bielema's job, so this is a pivotal season for the UW football program. Look for the defense to step up behind the leadership of Valai and Henry and lead the Badgers to another New Year's Day bowl game.